DUSHANBE, 09.01.2019. (NIAT Khovar) – The international financial organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), predict a significant economic growth for Tajikistan in 2019.

WB’s forecast for global economic growth in 2019 ranges between 2.9% and 3% with the background of increasing risks and adverse factors, according to its January review Global Economic Prospects (GEP).

According to WB experts, Tajikistan’s economic growth in 2019-2020 will be 6%.

The IMF adjusted its forecast for Tajikistan’s economic growth for 2019, increasing it to 5%, according to the updated World Economic Outlook report published on IMF’s website.

Previously, IMF economists had estimated that Tajikistan’s economy in 2017 would grow by 4.5%. While their projection was 2.5% lower than the expectations of Tajikistan’s government, the economy in fact grew by 7.1% the same year.

According to EDB’s forecast, the highest economic growth among its member states in 2019 will be in Tajikistan. It is estimated that the country will see a growth of 7%, according to EDB’s review.

“Tajikistan’s economy is projected to grow to 7% in 2019. This indicator is the highest among EDB’s member states. In particular, Russia’s economy is expected to slow from 1.8% in 2018 to 1.6%. In Kazakhstan, a slowdown is projected from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.3% in 2019, in Armenia to 5% and in Belarus to 1.6%. However, Kyrgyzstan’s growth is expected to accelerate to 3.9%,” according to EDB’s analytical report.

The implementation of the planned infrastructure projects is expected to contribute to the economic growth in Tajikistan.

According to Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance, the economic growth for 2019 is projected at 7%. The ministry plans to allocate large financial resources for the implementation of infrastructure projects by attracting loans and grants. Significant funds are planned to be allocated for the development of energy and transport sectors.

According to the relevant state departments, 14 investment projects are currently being implemented in the transportation sector, totaling 7.5 billion somoni ($ 796 million). Economic growth in Tajikistan will largely be determined by the implementation of infrastructure projects, states the report. About 200 kilometers of domestic and international roads and 45 bridges were built in 2018.

The growth forecast for Russia in 2019 was reduced by 0.3 percentage points, from 1.8% to 1.5%. At the same time, according to WB estimates, Russia’s economic growth in 2018 was 1.6%, in contrast to 1.5% which was expected in June. In 2020 a 1.8% rise is expected, and this rate is likely to continue a year later, think the experts at the WB.

China’s GDP in 2019 may increase to 6.2% (0.1 percentage points less than expected in June), slowing the rise from 6.5% in 2018. The projection for 2020 and 2021 are at 6.2% and 6% respectively.

WB retained its forecast for US’ economic growth for 2019 at 2.5%, but reduced it by 0.3 percentage points up to 1.7% for 2020. A slowed increase at 1.6% is expected in 2021.

Expectations for the euro-zone economy in 2018 are from around 1.7% to 1.6%, while the forecast for 2020 is confirmed at 1.5%.

Japan’s estimated GDP growth in 2018 was improved by 0.1 percentage points at 0.9%.

Meanwhile, the growth of the Kyrgyz economy is expected to reach 3.9% in 2019.

According to the same report, the expected slowdown in Kazakhstan’s economic growth from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.3% by the end of 2019 is due to measures taken in the field of monetary policy along with the completion of major investment projects.

The report also notes that the projected slowdown in economic growth in 2019 in Armenia will reach 5.0% and in Belarus 1.6% mainly due to the completion of the economic recovery phase.

EDB is the Fund Manager of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development for the sum of $ 8.513 billion. The fund was established in 2009 by the governments of Tajikistan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.

EDB headquarters are located in Almaty, Kazakhstan, with branches in St. Petersburg, Russia and representative missions in Dushanbe (Tajikistan), Astana (Kazakhstan), Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan), Yerevan (Armenia), Minsk (Belarus) and Moscow (Russia).